PGIM experts assess the next chapter in the global growth story, including geopolitical uncertainty, central bank dovishness and more.
PGIM Fixed Income’s 4th quarter outlook notes that positive total returns continued to accrue across the fixed income sectors in the third quarter, leading to some eye-popping double-digit gains thus far in 2019. With the possibility of change in mind, Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist, acknowledges that it is understandable to consider how things may go wrong for bonds from here. But in “Policy Uncertainty—Perfect for Bonds,” Tipp explains that the secular conditions that fueled the recent gains in fixed income haven’t changed and, in fact, could intensify going forward.
Also, Nathan Sheets, chief economist and head of macroeconomic research, looks at the divide between the global manufacturing and services sectors in “Assessing the Two-Track Global Economy Manufacturing vs. Services.”
In QMA’s Q4 2019 market outlook & review, QMA’s Global Multi-Asset Solutions team focuses on the countervailing forces affecting investors: U.S.-China trade tensions and global central banks launching a fresh round of easing to stimulate growth and counter the negative effects of the trade war. However, with policy rates already at, near or below zero in many countries and negative interest rates having adverse unintended consequences for bank balance sheets, there are plenty of doubts about the ability of central bankers to ward off a downturn.
Jennison Associates’ market review and 4th quarter outlook is not forecasting a U.S. recession. However, it projects that without clarity or a new agreement with China, the fallout from trade restraints already implemented will increasingly weigh on business confidence and consumer spending, as moves are taken to mitigate and pass on the increased costs of doing business. With this uncertainty, business planning and investing could be hampered, with delays and hesitancy in spending possible. The U.S. political landscape is likewise unsettled and apt to weigh on confidence and activity, as impeachment proceedings against President Trump begin and the 2020 election cycle ramps up. The most powerful offset to these headwinds is the health of the U.S. consumer. Employment remains strong, and incremental wage gains continue. Consensus projections of U.S. GDP growth—1.5%-2.0% for the year—were essentially unchanged.
Read the full reports on PGIM’s Market Outlooks site.